Financial pressure is catching up with more homeowners.
For the past several years, one of the biggest questions surrounding the housing market has been whether higher interest rates, elevated home prices, and the rising cost of living would eventually lead to an increase in foreclosures.
We are now beginning to see signs that financial pressure is catching up with more homeowners.
During the first six months of 2026, approximately 227,500 properties across the United States received some form of foreclosure filing. This includes default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. That represents a 21% increase compared with the same period in 2025 and a 28% increase compared with the first half of 2024. Foreclosure starts increased by 18%, while completed foreclosures rose by approximately 33%.
Those numbers certainly deserve our attention, but they do not necessarily mean that another 2008-style housing crash is approaching.
What they do tell us is that financial stress is growing, foreclosure activity is gradually returning to more historically normal levels, and patient real estate investors may begin seeing more opportunities over the next several years.
Why are foreclosures increasing?
The current increase in foreclosures is not being caused by one single issue. It is the result of several financial pressures building on top of one another.
Mortgage rates have remained elevated, particularly for buyers who purchased homes during the past few years. At the same time, homeowners have experienced increases in property taxes, insurance premiums, homeowners association fees, utilities, maintenance expenses, credit-card payments, and automobile loans.
A homeowner may have originally qualified for the mortgage, but that does not mean their entire household budget has remained affordable. A job loss, reduction in overtime, divorce, medical expense, major home repair, or increase in monthly bills can quickly push a homeowner who was already operating on a tight budget into financial trouble.
Recent buyers may be especially vulnerable because many purchased at higher prices, financed at higher interest rates, and have not owned their properties long enough to build substantial equity. At the same time, many longtime homeowners remain in a relatively strong position because they locked in low mortgage rates and benefited from years of appreciation. This is one of the primary reasons the current situation remains very different from the housing crisis of 2008.
This is not 2008. At least not today.
During the Great Financial Crisis, millions of homeowners owed more than their homes were worth. Lending standards had been extremely loose, adjustable-rate mortgages were resetting, and many borrowers had little ability to make their payments once market conditions changed.
Today, most homeowners have fixed-rate mortgages, and many still have considerable equity. That equity provides homeowners with options.
Rather than allowing a property to proceed all the way through foreclosure, an owner may be able to sell the home, pay off the mortgage, cover the selling expenses, and potentially walk away with money remaining.
That is why I believe we are more likely to see a gradual increase in motivated sales, pre-foreclosures, short sales, estate sales, investor liquidations, and distressed listings instead of a sudden wave of bank-owned properties flooding the market.
ATTOM described the national trend as a continued normalization of foreclosure activity, while also acknowledging that the increases suggest more homeowners are experiencing financial strain than they were one year ago.
What is happening in Idaho?
Idaho is beginning to stand out in the national foreclosure data.
Among states with at least 500 foreclosure filings during the first half of 2026, Idaho experienced one of the largest year-over-year increases in the country. Foreclosure activity in the state increased approximately 59% compared with the first half of 2025.
A 59% increase sounds alarming, but investors must put that percentage into proper perspective. Idaho started from a relatively low level of foreclosure activity. A substantial percentage increase does not automatically mean the state is experiencing widespread foreclosures or a collapsing housing market.
However, it does mean the trend is moving in a direction investors should be watching. The opportunity is not simply in the number of properties that have already been repossessed. The larger opportunity may be found among owners who are behind on payments, facing a pending trustee sale, carrying excessive debt, or realizing they can no longer afford the property.
What does this mean for Boise and the Treasure Valley?
The Boise-area housing market remains stronger than many markets across the country, but it is not immune to the same pressures affecting homeowners nationally.
Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, and Caldwell have all experienced tremendous growth over the past several years. Home prices increased rapidly, and many buyers stretched their budgets to compete during the strongest years of the market.
Conditions have since changed. Buyers now have more choices, homes can take longer to sell, and builders continue to compete with resale sellers by offering mortgage-rate incentives, closing-cost assistance, upgrades, and occasional price reductions.
For a homeowner who needs to sell quickly, competing against new construction can be challenging. A resale seller may not have the financial ability to offer the same incentives as a large homebuilder.
We could also see different conditions between Ada and Canyon counties. Ada County generally has stronger household incomes, more established equity, and greater long-term demand. Canyon County offers more affordable housing but may contain a higher concentration of owners who purchased with smaller down payments or stretched their finances to qualify.
That does not mean Canyon County is headed for widespread foreclosure. It simply means investors should carefully monitor areas where affordability has become strained and household budgets have less room for unexpected expenses.
Where could investors find opportunities?
The biggest mistake investors can make is waiting until every foreclosure opportunity appears as a bank-owned listing on the MLS. By that point, the property may have already attracted substantial attention.
The most attractive opportunities may appear earlier in the process.
Pre-foreclosure properties.
Pre-foreclosure generally begins when a homeowner falls behind and receives a formal notice from the lender or trustee. At this stage, the owner may still have equity and may be highly motivated to sell before the property proceeds to auction.
An investor may be able to purchase the property, pay off the existing loan, provide the seller with a reasonable amount of remaining equity, and prevent the foreclosure from appearing as a completed foreclosure on the owner's record. These transactions must be handled carefully, legally, and ethically. A homeowner experiencing financial distress should never be pressured or misled. The best transactions create a reasonable solution for both sides.
Properties requiring repairs.
Some financially distressed owners also own homes with significant deferred maintenance. The property may need a roof, HVAC system, flooring, paint, landscaping, foundation work, or extensive cleanup. These homes can be difficult to finance conventionally and may be better suited for an investor with cash, construction experience, or reliable contractor relationships.
The key is to remain conservative. Repair estimates should include a contingency, holding costs should be calculated realistically, and investors should avoid assuming the property will sell immediately after renovation.
Small rental properties.
Duplexes, fourplexes, townhomes, and entry-level single-family rentals could become particularly interesting if financially strained owners or overleveraged investors decide to sell. Some investors purchased properties using optimistic rent projections or assumed interest rates would quickly decline. If rents failed to increase enough to cover financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and property-management costs, those owners may now be willing to sell.
A disciplined buyer may be able to acquire the property at a more reasonable basis and improve the operation over time.
Builder and developer opportunities.
Foreclosure pressure does not only affect individual homeowners. Smaller builders, landowners, and developers may also experience financial stress from construction loans, carrying costs, slower sales, and difficulty refinancing.
This could create opportunities involving completed new homes, partially developed lots, entitled land, unfinished construction, or small development projects. These transactions can be attractive, but they also require considerably more due diligence than purchasing an existing home.
Investors must avoid chasing discounts.
An increasing number of foreclosures does not mean every distressed property is automatically a good investment.
Some properties entering foreclosure will still be overpriced. Others may have unpaid property taxes, judgment liens, second mortgages, homeowners association balances, title problems, environmental concerns, structural damage, or occupants who are unwilling to leave.
Investors should complete proper title research and understand exactly which liens or obligations will survive a foreclosure sale. They should also verify the property's current condition, the realistic after-repair value, comparable sales, market rent, vacancy assumptions, insurance costs, property taxes, repair expenses, financing costs, holding costs, utility balances, HOA obligations, exit strategy, required permits, and occupancy status.
Buying at a foreclosure auction without understanding the title, condition, and occupancy risks can turn what appears to be a bargain into an extremely expensive mistake.
Cash flow still matters.
During periods of rapid appreciation, investors could make money even when they purchased a mediocre deal. Rising prices often covered mistakes. That is no longer a reliable strategy.
The next generation of successful real estate investments will likely be based on sound fundamentals: buying below replacement cost, creating equity through renovation, producing sustainable rental income, maintaining adequate cash reserves, using conservative leverage, avoiding unrealistic appreciation assumptions, and having more than one exit strategy.
An investor should be able to hold the property through a slower market. If the numbers only work when mortgage rates immediately decline or the property appreciates 10% within a year, the investment is probably too speculative.
Patience may finally be rewarded.
For several years, real estate investors have struggled with high prices, low inventory, intense competition, and sellers who were unwilling to negotiate. That environment is gradually changing.
As foreclosure activity rises and more financially stressed owners enter the market, investors may begin seeing better pricing, more flexible terms, seller financing, assumable-loan opportunities, and less competition. However, this will likely happen slowly rather than all at once.
We may not see a dramatic collapse in home prices or thousands of foreclosed homes suddenly hitting the Boise market. Instead, we could see opportunities emerge one property at a time.
The investor who has financing arranged, contractor relationships in place, clearly defined purchasing criteria, and the patience to wait for the right deal will have an advantage.
My outlook for Boise-area investors.
I believe Boise and the Treasure Valley will continue to experience long-term population and economic growth, but that does not mean every property or neighborhood will perform equally well.
Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect we may see a gradual increase in pre-foreclosure activity, more motivated sellers, more investor-owned properties returning to the market, additional short-sale conversations, greater negotiating leverage for qualified buyers, continued builder incentives, more opportunities involving homes with deferred maintenance, better pricing in selected parts of Canyon County, and strong competition for the best properties in Ada County.
I do not believe we are currently facing another 2008-style housing collapse. I do believe the market is entering a period in which financial stress will create more opportunities for well-capitalized, patient, and disciplined investors.
The goal should never be to take advantage of a homeowner's hardship. The goal should be to identify situations where an investor can provide certainty, purchase the property at a price that properly reflects the risk and repairs, and offer the seller a better alternative than allowing the home to proceed through foreclosure.
Foreclosures are clearly beginning to rise across the country, and Idaho is showing one of the stronger year-over-year increases.
That is not a reason to panic. It is a reason to prepare.
Real estate investors should begin building relationships with lenders, attorneys, title companies, property managers, wholesalers, contractors, probate professionals, and local agents who understand distressed-property transactions. Investors should also keep cash available, maintain lending relationships, and clearly define the price and return requirements they need before purchasing.
The best opportunities often appear before the headlines declare that an opportunity exists.
Foreclosure activity may continue increasing, but successful investing will still come down to the same fundamentals it always has: buying correctly, performing proper due diligence, using responsible leverage, and remaining patient until the right opportunity presents itself.
The investors who prepare today may be in the strongest position to take advantage of the opportunities that develop throughout the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
