Where the Market Stands (Q1 2026)
Prices: Flat (a major shift from 2020–2022)
National appreciation is hovering around 0–1.5%
Some forecasts are even lower (~0.7%–0.9%)
Monthly data shows prices flattening with slowing year-over-year growth (~1.7%)
Takeaway
We’ve officially shifted from a growth market to a stabilization phase.
Inventory: Improving but still tight
Listings are up about 10% year-over-year
Still below pre-COVID levels
Homes are taking longer to sell
Takeaway
Buyers have more options than the past few years—but this is not a true buyer’s market yet
Mortgage Rates: Still the biggest challenge
Currently sitting around 6.3%–6.5%
Takeaway
Rates are high enough to limit affordability and suppress demand, even with stable prices
Sales Activity: Slowly picking up
Modest growth expected in 2026
Potential for stronger rebound if rates ease
Takeaway
Buyers are re-entering the market—but cautiously
Overall Market Type
Transitioning from seller’s market → more balanced/loosening conditions
Takeaway
We’re not crashing—we’re normalizing
Key Theme: A “Frozen” Market
Sellers are locked into low rates and hesitant to move
Buyers are highly payment-sensitive
Result: Lower transaction volume, stable pricing
What to Expect in Q2 2026
More Activity This Spring/Summer
Seasonal demand + slightly improved affordability
Builders increasing supply
Expect
More listings hitting the market
Increased deal flow compared to Q1
Prices: Flat to Slight Growth
Projected 0%–2% appreciation for the year
Q2 will likely be:
Mixed depending on the market
Some areas up, some flat, some still soft
Mortgage Rates Will Drive Everything
Forecast: ~6.1%–6.3%
If rates:
Drop: demand increases
Stay elevated: continued slow grind
Inventory Trending Up
More sellers entering due to life events (not speculation)
Result:
Slight shift in negotiation power toward buyers
Regional Differences Are Expanding
More affordable regions holding stronger
Some Western markets still softening
Takeaway:
There is no longer a “national market”—local dynamics matter more than ever
What This Means
For Buyers:
Best conditions we’ve seen since 2019–2020
Less competition and more negotiating room
Still constrained by monthly payments
For Sellers:
Homes are still selling, but strategy matters
Pricing correctly is critical
Concessions (closing costs, rate buydowns) are back
For Investors:
Appreciation is no longer the primary play
Deals need to make sense based on:
Cash flow
Long-term fundamentals
Bottom Line
Q1 2026: Stable, slow, slight improvement
Q2 2026: Gradual thaw—not a boom, not a crash
The market right now is:
“Flat prices, slowly increasing activity, and highly dependent on interest rates.”
